A troubling new report by Ugandan researchers and activists has sounded the alarm about the country’s dangerous shift toward military rule as the 2026 elections approach. The study, conducted over seven months, paints a grim picture of Uganda’s democracy being quietly dismantled by the very forces meant to protect it.

Titled “Guns Everywhere! The Military and Transition Politics in Uganda,” the report argues that the military is no longer just a security institution but has become a parallel government, steadily taking over civilian roles. Authored by policy experts Godber Tumushabe, lawyer Andrew Karamagi, Barnet Musasizi, and Job Kiija, the document traces how the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) has remained loyal to President Yoweri Museveni and his ruling NRM party rather than serving as a neutral national army.

Speaking at a pre-launch event in Kampala, Tumushabe warned that Uganda is experiencing what he called a “slow-motion coup”, not a sudden military takeover, but a gradual erosion of civilian authority. The report highlights several disturbing incidents, including the deployment of soldiers during the 2025 Kawempe by-election, the abduction of opposition figures, and armed troops storming Parliament to influence laws.

One of the most alarming developments, according to the researchers, is the passing of the UPDF (Amendment) Act in May 2025. This law gives military courts sweeping powers to try civilians, despite past Supreme Court rulings against such practices. The report argues that this move effectively places ordinary citizens under military justice, further blurring the line between civilian governance and armed rule.

The study also raises concerns about the growing influence of the Special Forces Command (SFC), a powerful unit once led by General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, President Museveni’s son and the current Chief of Defence Forces. Originally meant to protect high-ranking officials, the SFC has expanded its role far beyond its original mandate, becoming what the report describes as “an army within an army.”

While the UPDF has played a positive role in regional peacekeeping missions, the report notes that its domestic actions tell a different story. Instead of protecting democracy, the military is increasingly used to suppress opposition voices and tighten the ruling party’s grip on power. The researchers compare Uganda’s situation to countries like Chad, Togo, and Gabon, where military-backed dynasties have taken root.

The report warns that Uganda is now living out the worst-case scenario predicted in a 2021 study—what the authors called the “Warrior-Mad-King” scenario. This involves authoritarian rule, heavy military involvement in politics, and the rise of a privileged military elite. Without urgent action to restore civilian control, the country risks a complete democratic collapse.

During discussions at the report’s pre-launch, participants stressed the need for Ugandans to recognize the dangers of militarization. Many argued that what is happening on the streets is not genuine peacekeeping but rather the enforcement of political control through fear.

Retired Major General Mugisha Muntu, a former UPDF commander, urged Ugandans, especially the educated elite, to unite and demand constitutional reforms. “If we want change, we must stand together,” he said.

The full report, set for release in August, was compiled by two organizations: Innovations for Democratic Engagement and Action (IDEA) and the Great Lakes Institute for Strategic Studies (GLISS). It calls for a national dialogue on how Uganda can ensure a peaceful transition of power ahead of the 2026 elections.

As the country moves closer to another election cycle, the question remains: Can Uganda pull back from the brink of militarized rule, or is it too late to restore true civilian democracy? The report’s authors warn that without immediate action, the future looks bleak. The world may soon witness not just another contested election, but the final stages of a silent military takeover disguised as governance.

For now, all eyes are on whether Ugandans will heed this warning and demand change—before the guns decide their fate for them.