The air in Uganda feels heavy with tension these days. As President Museveni prepares to address the nation, ordinary citizens, politicians and foreign diplomats alike are all watching closely. The country stands at a dangerous crossroads, with growing political violence, disturbing reports of human rights abuses, and crumbling trust in democratic institutions pushing Uganda toward crisis.

This year has seen worrying signs that the country’s political situation is unraveling. Opposition parties, which should be preparing to challenge for power in the 2026 elections, are instead fighting among themselves. At the same time, shocking stories keep emerging about opposition supporters being kidnapped and tortured. The recent case of Eddie Mutwe, a bodyguard for opposition leader Bobi Wine who disappeared for weeks before reappearing with clear signs of brutal treatment, has left many Ugandans terrified.

Even officials from the ruling NRM party admit the situation is delicate. Emmanuel Dombo, the party’s communications director, used the phrase “treading on eggshells” to describe the current climate. He pointed to growing tensions between Uganda’s military and some foreign embassies as part of the problem. Relations with several European countries, particularly Germany, have become increasingly strained in recent months.

Meanwhile, opposition groups complain they’re being squeezed out of politics completely. Party offices have been closed, peaceful gatherings broken up by soldiers, and critical voices silenced. Political expert Professor Gerald Karyeija describes Uganda as being caught in “a perfect storm of fear and frustration.” He warns that the military’s growing involvement in politics – something that goes against Uganda’s constitution – could have disastrous consequences.

The coming elections should offer hope for change, but few believe they’ll be fair. Although the Electoral Commission has announced its plans for the vote, many remember the problems of past elections and doubt this one will be different. President Museveni’s recent public criticism of the Commission has only made people more suspicious.

Perhaps most worrying is the climate of fear created by security forces. Stories of midnight arrests, secret detentions and brutal interrogations have become common. While NRM officials admit some abuses have occurred, almost no one has been punished. This culture of impunity, experts warn, is pushing Uganda toward dangerous instability.

Civil society groups monitoring the situation say Uganda’s democracy is in serious trouble. Basic freedoms – to speak out, to gather, to challenge those in power – are disappearing fast. What was once a lively political debate has become a whispered conversation, as more and more Ugandans fear the consequences of speaking their minds.

As the president prepares to speak, the nation waits anxiously. Some hope he’ll announce real reforms to calm the situation. Others expect only empty promises. But everyone agrees this is a critical moment. The choices made in coming months – about how elections will be run, how opposition will be treated, how security forces behave – will determine whether Uganda can step back from the brink or plunges deeper into crisis.

With so much at stake, the president’s words will matter. But what happens after the speech may matter even more. In a country where trust in institutions has collapsed and political violence is rising, Uganda’s fragile peace could shatter at any moment. The world is watching to see which path Africa’s long-time leader will choose.