On January 26, 1986, Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and his guerrilla fighters made history as they marched into Kampala, putting an end to years of instability and conflict in Uganda. The victory celebrations of that day marked the start of what was initially seen as a temporary leadership, aimed at restoring order and democracy in the country.

Thirty-nine years later, Museveni is still very much in office, at the helm of the NRM. Such longevity in office has raised several questions as to whether his leadership strategy was pre-planned or developed along the way. Many of his initial comrades from the bush war days are no longer in the picture, a factor that has raised debate on how his rule has evolved.

The swearing-in at Parliament in 1986 was a moment of triumph. Museveni stood with his key allies, Kahinda Otafiire, Jim Muhwezi, and the late Maj Robert Kabuura, while others like his brother Salim Saleh watched from a distance. This leadership was glued together by a common goal: rebuilding Uganda and returning power to the people.

Bush war veteran Abduli Nadduli recalls that Museveni’s early leadership was grounded in the promise of a new governance model that prioritized democracy and stability. The 10-point program introduced by the National Resistance Army (NRA) helped build trust and support for the movement.

Whereas Museveni had introduced himself as some sort of revolutionary leader, his governance has gradually turned into what many perceive now as a political dynasty. According to Dr. Gerald Kalyeija, a political analyst, although Museveni had leadership aspirations when he led the bush war, his extended leadership was influenced by possession of increased state power.

“I think he had dreams when he mobilized his colleagues to follow him into the bush. But once he captured state power and realized he could manage it effectively, he expanded his rule,” Kalyeija explains.

Museveni’s ability to consolidate power, Kalyeija adds, has come from his readiness to part ways with allies who no longer align with his vision.

“If he senses you are not in sync with his leadership direction, he lets you go,” he notes.

This approach has made many question whether Museveni is now politically isolated or whether this was his plan all along.

“I don’t think he was left alone. Maybe he chose to stand alone by design,” Kalyeija adds.

Moses Byaruhanga, a long-time supporter of the NRM, says that these 38 years the party has been in power are testimony to its political and economic successes.

“The party strength is evidenced in elections. The majority of Members of Parliament, district chairpersons, and local leaders are from the NRM,” Byaruhanga says. He also cites Uganda’s economic development as evidence of good governance by the party.

Though many of Museveni’s original comrades are no longer in the picture, Byaruhanga insists that his leadership remains paramount to the stability of the party.

“As a party, we always choose our best. Museveni is the best person to carry the NRM mantle,” he says.

The leading role played by Museveni into power was molded intellectually and practically. His time working with influential African leaders like Julius Nyerere and revolutionary movements such as FRELIMO gave him insight into governance and political survival. The experiences have helped him maintain a firm grip on Uganda’s leadership.

With the NRM approaching its 40th anniversary, debates about succession and the party’s future have continued to increase. The leadership of Museveni for the time being looks like one that has been both a product of strategic planning and the organic processes of Uganda’s political history. Whether this will be extended further or give way to the coming of a successor is the biggest question yet to be answered.