Former Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila has announced he will end his self-imposed exile in South Africa and return to his troubled homeland through its most dangerous region – the conflict-ridden east. The surprise move comes as fighting escalates between government forces and rebel groups, raising questions about Kabila’s motives and potential impact on the crisis.

Kabila, who ruled Africa’s second-largest country for 18 years before stepping down in 2019, revealed his plans in an April 8 interview with French magazine Jeune Afrique. “After six years of complete retreat, one year in exile, and in light of the escalating security crisis, I have decided to return to DR Congo without delay to help find solutions,” the 53-year-old former leader stated. His choice to enter through eastern Congo – where rebels control major cities like Goma and Bukavu – has already sparked controversy and renewed accusations from current President Felix Tshisekedi’s government.

The former president’s relationship with his successor has deteriorated dramatically since their initial power-sharing agreement. Kabila left Congo abruptly in December 2023, later appearing in South Africa where he enrolled at the University of Johannesburg. His departure followed years of growing tensions with Tshisekedi, who increasingly accused his predecessor of backing rebel groups – particularly the M23 movement active in eastern Congo.

“Joseph Kabila boycotted the election and is preparing an insurrection because he is the AFC,” Tshisekedi told supporters during the 2023 campaign, referring to the Alliance Fleuve Congo coalition that includes M23. At February’s Munich Security Conference, the president went further, claiming: “The real sponsor of the opposition that took up arms in complicity with Rwanda is hiding: it is Joseph Kabila.”

Government officials have been quick to dismiss Kabila’s planned return. Foreign Minister Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner recently stated that Congo “does not require Joseph Kabila’s involvement” in resolving the eastern crisis. However, Kabila insists his motives are peaceful, telling Jeune Afrique that dangers at home compelled his return.

Kabila’s political journey began dramatically when he assumed power at age 29 following his father Laurent-Désiré Kabila’s 2001 assassination. After winning elections in 2006 and 2011, his controversial extended rule ended with Tshisekedi’s 2019 inauguration – initially as part of a fragile coalition that collapsed within a year.

The breaking point came when Tshisekedi unilaterally appointed constitutional court judges, prompting Kabila’s allies to defect. Since then, the ex-president has positioned himself as both critic and potential peacemaker. From exile, he published opinion pieces condemning Tshisekedi’s governance while meeting with opposition figures like Moïse Katumbi.

In a Sunday Times article earlier this year, Kabila accused the current administration of constitutional violations and human rights abuses, writing that “the innumerable violations…will not end after negotiations.” He particularly criticized Tshisekedi’s strategy of trading mineral rights for Western support against rebels, arguing solutions must come from Congolese themselves.

Kabila’s timing appears calculated. Eastern Congo’s conflict has intensified, with regional forces struggling against well-armed rebel groups. His announced route through the crisis zone suggests either a bold peacemaking gesture or, as critics allege, an opportunity to reconnect with alleged allies.

The former president claims his decision followed consultations with African leaders and international organizations. Some analysts suggest he may be testing waters for a political comeback, while others believe he genuinely seeks to broker peace in his divided nation.

Speaking to South African media last year, Kabila invoked his past peace efforts: “We are ready to work for peace, actively work for peace and that was our attitude 22 years ago when we came to Sun City.” His reference to 2002 peace talks that ended Congo’s devastating civil war hints at similar ambitions now.

Kabila’s return complicates an already volatile situation. Neighboring Rwanda stands accused of supporting M23 rebels – claims it denies. Regional bloc SADC has deployed troops, but Kabila recently urged member states like South Africa to reconsider military support for Tshisekedi, arguing internal grievances must be addressed.

“Congo cannot continue to be this cry-baby in the region talking about how weak it is,” he remarked pointedly. His words reflect both nationalist pride and subtle criticism of the current administration’s reliance on foreign help.

As Kabila prepares to reenter Congo’s turbulent political arena, key questions remain: Will he act as statesman or spoiler? Can he help stabilize the east, or will his presence inflame tensions further? One thing is certain – his return ensures DR Congo’s complex power struggles have entered a new, unpredictable chapter.

The coming weeks will reveal whether Kabila’s move marks a turning point in Congo’s crisis or simply another twist in its long history of political turmoil. For ordinary Congolese caught in conflict, they can only hope their former leader’s promised “solutions” bring real change rather than renewed strife.