President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda arrived in Juba on Tuesday for urgent talks with South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir, as the young nation teeters on the brink of renewed conflict. The working visit, conducted at Kiir’s invitation, comes amid escalating tensions following the house arrest of First Vice President Riek Machar and violent clashes in Upper Nile state that threaten to unravel years of fragile peace.

The two leaders are expected to discuss strengthening bilateral relations, but the unspoken agenda looms larger – preventing South Sudan from sliding back into civil war. Kiir’s government has accused Machar of inciting rebellion, linking him to recent fighting that has sparked fears of a return to the brutal 2013-2018 conflict which killed an estimated 400,000 people and displaced millions.

As Museveni’s motorcade rolled through Juba’s streets, the weight of history hung heavy over the visit. Uganda has long played a pivotal role in South Sudan’s affairs, with Museveni frequently acting as regional power broker. This time, his diplomatic mission coincides with urgent mediation efforts by the African Union, which has dispatched former Burundian President Domitien Ndayizeye and Kenyan judge Effie Owuor to salvage the 2018 peace agreement.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has added his voice to growing international concern, calling for coordinated action to prevent another devastating conflict. “The release of detained leaders and genuine political dialogue are essential to preserving South Sudan’s fragile peace,” Guterres stated, underscoring the precariousness of the situation.

For Uganda, the stakes extend beyond neighborly concern. The two nations share deep economic ties, with Uganda exporting $200 million worth of goods annually to South Sudan through the Nimule border crossing. Additionally, Uganda hosts over 900,000 South Sudanese refugees – a stark reminder of how instability spreads across borders. Museveni’s ability to influence events in Juba could determine whether these economic and humanitarian links remain viable.

The current crisis stems from long-simmering tensions between Kiir and Machar, whose rivalry has defined South Sudan’s troubled history since independence in 2011. Recent clashes in Upper Nile state, where government forces battled Machar-aligned groups, have raised the specter of renewed nationwide violence. Observers note that the patterns mirror those seen before the 2013 civil war erupted.

As Museveni and Kiir meet behind closed doors, the international community watches anxiously. Uganda’s president brings unique leverage to the table – his country’s troops helped prop up Kiir’s government during the civil war, and Kampala maintains close military ties with Juba. However, this very relationship complicates Museveni’s role as mediator, with Machar’s supporters viewing Uganda as anything but neutral.

The talks occur against a backdrop of hurried diplomatic activity. Beyond the AU delegation, regional bloc IGAD has intensified shuttle diplomacy, while the United States and European Union have called for immediate de-escalation. All eyes remain on whether Museveni can use his influence to secure Machar’s release from house arrest – seen by many as the first step toward meaningful dialogue.

Economic realities add urgency to the crisis. South Sudan’s oil-dependent economy remains fragile, with inflation soaring and food insecurity affecting over 60% of the population. Another conflict could collapse the already strained systems keeping the nation afloat. For Uganda, which relies on South Sudan as a key export market, economic ripple effects would be immediate and severe.

As sunset fell on Juba, the outcome of Museveni’s mission remained uncertain. Diplomats suggest that even buying time – preventing immediate violence – would constitute success. But with Machar’s supporters growing restless and Kiir showing little willingness to compromise, the path to lasting peace appears fraught.

What remains clear is that South Sudan’s fate hangs in the balance once more. As Museveni departs, the world waits to see whether this visit marks the beginning of renewed dialogue or merely a pause before another tragic chapter in South Sudan’s troubled history. The coming days will test whether regional diplomacy can prevail where international efforts have struggled to gain traction.

For ordinary South Sudanese, exhausted by years of conflict, the high-stakes diplomacy offers both hope and apprehension. In displacement camps and markets across the country, people watch nervously, knowing their future depends on decisions made in presidential palaces and diplomatic meeting rooms. As one Juba resident put it: “We’ve seen this movie before. We pray the ending will be different this time.”