President Yoweri Museveni will campaign for the National Resistance Movement (NRM) candidate, Faridah Nambi, in the hotly contested Kawempe North by-election. The action is viewed as a crucial test of the ruling party’s capacity to woo voters in a traditionally opposition-dominated constituency. As NRM national chairman, Museveni wants to turn around fortunes for Nambi, the daughter of the vice-chairman Al-Hajj Moses Kigongo. But the opposition National Unity Platform (NUP) party has a solid base in the constituency, and this becomes a big political battleground.

The by-election follows the death of NUP’s Muhammad Ssegirinya, who won the seat in 2021 with an overwhelming 41,197 votes. His closest challenger, independent candidate Sulaiman Kidandala, trailed far behind with 7,512 votes, while NRM’s Tom Johnfisher Kasenge came third with 6,946 votes. Given this history, Museveni’s intervention is seen as a bold attempt to reverse NRM’s fortunes in a constituency where the opposition has consistently outperformed the ruling party. Ahead of Museveni’s visit, Prime Minister Robinah Nabbanja has been actively campaigning for Nambi in key areas such as Bwaise, Kazo-Angola, and Kyebando.

Nabbanja has urged residents to vote for a government-aligned candidate, arguing that opposition legislators cannot effectively lobby for services. “The people of Kampala lack services because they vote wrongly. They voted for candidates who do not sit on the NRM parliament caucus where most resource-based decision is made,” she affirmed. Such appeal depicts long-drawn strategy for NRM by linking provision of public services to political loyalty. However, critics have mocked such efforts at political blackmail. The campaign has been marked by high security involvement, with the initial reports of assaults on NUP supporters drawing wide condemnation.

Following public protest and intervention by the Electoral Commission, security eased the restrictions, allowing NUP’s candidate, Elias Luyimbazi Nalukoola, to hold large rallies. The NRM has, however, labeled the rallies as coordinated, claiming that NUP moves supporters to the areas in order to give the impression of popularity. Museveni’s presence in Kawempe North will be closely watched, especially in light of NRM’s recent by-election losses. In Kisoro, his campaign for Rose Kabagyeni ended in defeat as an NRM-leaning independent, Grace Akifeeza Ngabirano, took the seat. Despite such setbacks, by-elections in Uganda generally favor the ruling party, as it can concentrate resources and mobilize state machinery to influence the outcome.

The NRM has faced tough battles in opposition strongholds before. In 2017, Robert Kyagulanyi, now the leader of NUP, shocked the establishment with a landslide victory in the Kyaddondo East by-election. A similar contest in Arua Municipality in 2018 turned violent, leading to the arrest of Kyagulanyi and others following an alleged attack on Museveni’s convoy. More recently, in the Kayunga mayoral by-election, NRM’s Andrew Muwonge won amid opposition allegations of vote rigging.

The Kawempe North by-election has attracted nine candidates, with Nalukoola and Nambi being the front runners. Other candidates include Henry Kasacca Mubiru of the Democratic Party, Sadat Mukiibi of the Forum for Democratic Change, and Ismail Musiitwa of the People’s Progressive Party. Independent candidates such as Mohammad Luwemba, a former personal assistant to Ssegirinya, and Moses Nsereko, who lost in NUP’s primaries, complicate the race.

As the election approaches, Museveni’s involvement is expected to shape the final stretch of the campaign. His ability to rally support for Nambi will be a key factor in determining the outcome. However, whether his intervention will be enough to overcome NUP’s historical advantage remains uncertain. The by-election is not just a test of Museveni’s political pull but also a reflection of the broader dynamics shaping Uganda’s political landscape.

The stakes are high for both the NRM and the opposition. For the ruling party, victory would be a sign of its ability to penetrate opposition strongholds and strengthen its grip on power. For NUP, retaining the seat would solidify its grip on urban areas and cement its position as a serious contender against the NRM.

As Kawempe North citizens head to the polling stations, the by-election is a mini-version of the struggle for political control in Uganda. It highlights the tension between efforts by the ruling party to maintain power and calls by opposition forces to topple the regime. Whatever the result, the outcome will have profound long-term repercussions for the future of Ugandan democracy.

As the election is to be held on Thursday, all attention is now focused on Kawempe North. Will the campaign of Museveni bring a change in the fortunes of the NRM, or will NUP’s grip remain intact? The truth will be known at the polling booth soon.